- clear sky near dusk or dawn
- phone with location enabled or a notebook and local coordinates
- clock
- satellite pass prediction website or app
- optional binoculars for dimmer passes
Experiment
Satellite Pass Watch
Can you observe a predicted satellite pass at the announced time, direction, and peak elevation the way orbital geometry predicts?
Materials Needed
Setup Steps
- Choose a bright visible pass such as the ISS from a predictor that uses your actual observing location.
- Record the predicted rise direction, rise time, maximum elevation, peak time, set direction, and total visible duration.
- Go outside a few minutes early with a clear horizon in the predicted direction and watch the satellite move against the background stars.
- Write down or screenshot how closely the observed rise, peak, and disappearance match the published pass.
Expected Calculation
A low-Earth-orbit satellite should be visible only for a limited window because it rises above your local horizon, crosses part of the sky while still sunlit, and then fades or sets as Earth blocks line of sight or the satellite enters shadow.
Graphic
This visual shows the core geometry the experiment is testing before the real-world observation is made.
What to Observe
- The object rises from the predicted horizon region, moves smoothly across the sky, and disappears near the predicted set region.
- The observed timing usually stays close to the published rise, peak, and set times within ordinary observing error.
- Higher-elevation passes usually stay visible longer and are easier to track than low skim-the-horizon passes.
- The motion is consistent with a fast moving orbital object, not with a fixed tower, aircraft holding pattern, or stationary balloon.
Interpretation
Repeated passes with predictable timing, direction, peak elevation, and horizon-limited visibility are exactly what an orbital satellite model predicts. This is especially useful because the pass geometry can be checked directly by ordinary observers without needing access to launch providers or national space agencies.
Sources
Evidence Card
Claim
Can you observe a predicted satellite pass at the announced time, direction, and peak elevation the way orbital geometry predicts?
Model Used
The experiment’s stated geometry or physical model with fixed inputs across comparisons.
Formula
A low-Earth-orbit satellite should be visible only for a limited window because it rises above your local horizon, crosses part of the sky while still sunlit, and then fades or sets as Earth blocks line of sight or the satellite enters shadow.Last Verified
2026-03-23
Assumptions
- The protocol holds location, height, and distance inputs fixed while comparing observation to prediction.
- A single ambiguous photo is not enough; repeatable measurements matter.
- Primary-source references carry more weight than generic summaries.
External Sources
A page-specific source set has not been attached yet.
What Would Falsify This Page
A repeatable observation that matched the competing model better than this experiment’s stated prediction would count against this page.